Fewer than 1% of officers on the frontline of housing delivery think the government’s target of 1.5 million new homes by 2029 is achievable, according to a recent survey. Andrew Harbourne of Thackray Williams explores why.
The report by public-sector procurement specialist Pagabo, in association with Surveys in Public Sector, is no doubt uncomfortable reading for ministers.
Fewer than 1% of those questioned (local government and registered office providers) believe the target can be hit with current policy measures. While 27% think it could be achieved with significant reform, 70% are convinced the target is overly ambitious.
So, what could be holding things up?
The planning gap
The survey highlights planning restrictions as an issue.
Planning reform is central to government efforts to boost development, with ministers pinning hopes on digital upgrades, streamlined procedures and extra resources to ease pressure on planning departments.
Early pilots suggest automation can make a meaningful dent in workloads. Digital tools have already cut administrative tasks by up to 85%, freeing officers from routine processing.
New technology, including AI systems to convert legacy planning files in minutes, promises further gains.
Ministers want more decisions delegated to officers, and they’ve simplified routes for nationally significant infrastructure projects.
Applications are rising, but efficiencies alone cannot disguise the acute shortage of qualified planners. Although 350 new posts are promised, capacity and experience could take years to build, particularly as planning reforms bed in.
The delivery gap
While the survey revealed concerns about a lack of development land at affordable prices and a shortage of infrastructure, the government has been channelling funds to local authorities.
In her November 2025 budget, Rachel Reeves allocated £13bn for seven of the most advanced Mayoral Strategic Authorities to fund growth. Separately, through the Local Growth Fund, 11 authorities in the north and Midlands are sharing £902m for local infrastructure, business support and skills programmes.
And six mayoral authorities in the north and Midlands will receive the Mayoral Revolving Growth Fund, a total pot of £500m to unlock development and growth.
Proposals for statutory build-out schedules could put pressure on developers to build at pace, while planning authorities may get powers to restrict applications from consistently slow builders.
Land-use policy is also evolving. Lower-quality greenbelt land is becoming easier to release. Schemes near well-connected rail stations may qualify for automatic consent if they meet defined standards.
Adjustments to biodiversity net gain requirements for small sites and potential exemptions from the Building Safety Levy aim to support SME builders, though critics warn that easing regulations may have long-term ecological or market consequences.
These initiatives could speed schemes from approval to construction, but their impact rests heavily on whether councils, investors and developers feel confident enough to use them at scale.
The Pagabo survey shows that registered providers have to focus as much on improving existing housing stock as building more. It also reveals concerns over government funding for affordable housing.
The skills gap
Forecasts suggest the industry will need tens of thousands of new workers each year through to 2029, yet the labour pool continues to shrink owing to an ageing workforce, difficulties attracting younger entrants, tighter post-Brexit labour supply and inadequate training provision.
Government initiatives such as Skills Hubs, Technical Excellence Colleges and Bootcamps are expanding training capacity.
However, modern construction demands a skillset that blends traditional craftsmanship with digital, modular and AI-enabled capabilities. Current pathways may struggle to produce such workers at the speed required.
The innovation gap
Modern methods of construction and techniques like 3D printing are often presented as solutions to capacity pressures. Yet uptake of offsite manufacturing has been inconsistent, while insurers and funders remain cautious.
3D printing offers precision and speed, but high costs, specialist expertise and evolving regulation mean it is more likely to influence major infrastructure projects in the medium term than transform mainstream housebuilding.
It could be useful, but not in time for the government’s targets.
The demand gap
Delivery relies on sufficient demand across sectors, and market conditions remain weak.
Mortgage approvals have fallen, while housing starts and completions remain subdued. Even in the affordable housing sector, there has been a drop-off in demand from registered providers, so that thousands of built or consented affordable homes now have no buyers. That can also delay build out of the private elements of a site and hurt developers’ cashflow and profitability.
Homeowners, particularly flat owners, face difficulty selling and moving on. Higher living costs, frozen tax thresholds and student loan deductions are squeezing disposable income, while broader economic uncertainty is restraining buyer confidence.
Private landlords are reducing their portfolios in response to regulation and tax changes, and second-homeowners face rising council tax charges – trends that may free up stock but reduce incentives for new development.
With Help to Buy no longer available in England, pressure is mounting for demand-side measures such as stamp duty reform or targeted support for first-time buyers.
The confidence gap
The government has an ambitious programme to improve planning, encourage investment, develop skills and modernise construction. Yet significant barriers remain, which no doubt underpin the scepticism of frontline housing delivery officers as to whether the national housing targets can be achieved.
Andrew Harbourne is a specialist in non-contentious construction law with Thackray Williams.
