A slowdown in new project orders is intensifying pressure on tender prices across the UK construction industry, consultancy Rider Levett Bucknall (RLB) has warned.
RLB’s latest weighted average tender price index (TPI) forecasts a 3.03% uplift for 2025, which is slightly down from the Q2 2025 forecast of 3.22%.
Although Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows overall construction output up by just over 1% year-on-year to June, and nearly 1.7% over the last six months, growth remains patchy.
Gains are largely driven by repair and maintenance work and a seeming recovery of housing, which is up 1.3%. New orders show only limited expansion outside of infrastructure, which has surged in recent months.
The volumes of work across different sectors continue to be mixed in regional markets, depending on proportions of public and private sector work, as well as local economic market development.
‘Sector remains largely stagnant’
RLB said the lack of new orders is forcing contractors into tighter, more competitive bidding, with downstream risks for project delivery.
Input costs are also under pressure, with BCIS data reflecting similar downward adjustments. This mirrors the wider UK economy, which continues to deliver subdued growth.
Roger Hogg, chair of RLB’s global research committee, said: “Our construction market intelligence points to a sector that remains largely stagnant, with growth driven by public sector projects while private investment stays cautious in light of ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.
“The pipeline of government work could act as a double-edged sword – stimulating demand but also triggering cost pressures that risk driving tender price inflation.
“At the same time, skills shortages remain a key pressure point and could intensify quickly if workloads rise. Looking ahead, we expect tender prices in 2026 to stay broadly in line with 2025, even in the face of potential government-driven work coming to the market.”
