The target of reducing built environment carbon emissions by 50% from 1990 levels by 2025 is slipping out of reach, after a new progress update revealed that a steady decline in emissions up to 2009 has reversed – leaving a wider gap to bridge than in 2009.
The 2015 Routemap Progress: Technical Report, commissioned by the Green Construction Board and published on its website in late December, shows that annual emissions in the UK in 2012 were 11% lower than 1990 levels, while in 2009 emissions were 17% lower.
The report says: “There has been a growing divergence occurring over just a few years (2009 through 2013). Given the steepness of the trajectory required to meet the ambition for built environment carbon reductions (and statutory targets for the UK as a whole), a significant transformation from the ongoing ‘status quo’ trajectory is needed.”
The report updates the Low Carbon Routemap for the Built Environment, the 2013 report by the Green Construction Board, which maps out how an 80% cut in UK built environment carbon emissions could be achieved.
The orignal routemap and the update include both annual emissions from heating and lighting the entire UK domestic and commercial building stock, plus an annual measure of “capital carbon”.
This includes embedded carbon from the materials used in new buildings, refurbishments and infrastructure built each year, as well as the carbon footprint of the industry’s own processes and transport emissions.
According to the authors, a team at Arup and the University of Leeds, increased gas consumption from heating is the primary reason for the 2012 increase in emissions relative to 2009, which breaks down as:
- 5% increase in domestic sector operational emissions, from 91 to 96 million tonnes of CO2e
- 20% increase in non-domestic operational emissions, from 45 to 54 million tonnes of CO2e
- 9% total overall increase in operational emissions, from 144 to 157 million tonnes CO2e.
But a slight increase in “capital carbon”, the 45 million tonne portion of overall carbon emissions in the control of the industry, also showed that the drive to “decarbonise” materials and processes in the supply chain has had little effect.
The report shows that a sharp decrease in capital carbon in 2008-9 was driven by the slowdown in construction activity, and that a corresponding increase took hold in 2009-12 once output picked up. In other words, carbion emissions have not been “de-coupled” from output.
The report says: “The data provides no evidence of a trend driven by efficiences or process improvements in design, manufacturing or the supply chain.”
Responding to the report, GCB chairman and Skanska chief executive Mike Putnam, said: ”The fall in carbon emissions from the buitl environment of 11% since 1990 is a welcome reduction. However, as the update shows there is still a long way to go if we are to meet the ambition of cutting emissions by 50% by 2025.
“The industry needs to show leadership and commitment to reducing its carbon emissions and through doing so can also reduce its costs. Bodies such as the Construction Leadership Council’s Green Construction Board, which I chair, help bring the industry together to rise to this challenge.”
“The report clearly illustrates that we are not on the required trajectory and much more needs to be done to meet the Construction 2025 target of 50% and the statutory target of 80% reduction by 2050.”
Rob Lambe, Green Construction Board member
Green Construction Board member Rob Lambe, managing director of Willmott Dixon Energy Services, told Construction Manager: “Anyone that still doesn’t understand the urgency and scale of the challenge we face to achieve the critically important carbon reduction levels should read the Low Carbon Routemap progress report published by the Green Construction Board.
“The report clearly illustrates that we are not on the required trajectory and much more needs to be done to meet the Construction 2025 target of 50% and the statutory target of 80% reduction by 2050.”
Lambe said that the reversal in the pre-2009 downward trend had been expected, following last year’s Committee on Climate Change Report, but the routemap update nevertheless underlined the need for “transformational change” in both government policy and industry practice.
“Activity in the industry is anticipated to increase, and capital carbon is associated with activity. If nothing happens to capital intensity, [emissions] will not decrease,” he said.
“The opportunity to make a big impact in operational energy is outside the hands of the industry. The hope was that the Green Deal would mobilise the industry and catalyse action, but now the question of what we need to do is part of the Bonfield Review.
“Unless you galvanise a coherent plan between industry and government, particularly within the domestic stock, it’s increasingly unlikely that we’ll make that target.”
Lambe added that retrofitting existing homes needed to take far higher priority. “The built environment emissions are dominated by gas used to heat domestic properties, substantially due to the poor condition of the existing building stock in the UK. This is why the recent publication of the Hansford Report into Solid Wall Insulation, commissioned by the Green Construction Board, and the ongoing Bonfield Review, are so important.
“Whilst the challenge for the UK remains great, the opportunity for the construction sector is equally great.”
I will willingly stick my neck out and say that these reduction targets will never be achieved; they are arbitrary and – ultimately – pointless.
One thing we are good at in this country is our Government setting targets; scrapping them when it is clear we are about to miss them by miles, and then setting higher targets for x years in the future. And so the process goes on.
Meanwhile, the industry wrings its hands trying to achieve unachievable targets set by ignorant politicians.
Regarding Tony’s comment, the targets are not pointless: they are based ultimately on the uncontrovertible evidence of GHG concentrations and sound climate science, which tell us that reversing the currrent trend in GHG emissions is necessary to avoid catastrophic climate change. Undoubtedly the targets are very challenging but without measurement and reporting against targets there will be no action at all.