The sector’s demand for skilled people has been revised down by the CITB in the aftermath of the EU referendum vote. The annual UK-wide recruitment requirement has fallen by a third, from 232,000 to 157,000 by 2020, says the Construction Skills Network.
It says that from 2015 to 2020 the industry will now need 25,350 new workers every year in England, 3,540 in Wales, 1,810 in Scotland and 650 in Northern Ireland.
The fall in demand for new workers is being forecast in line with a slowdown in growth in the aftermath of the EU referendum vote, according to the CITB.
The latest Construction Skills Network report reveals that post-EU referendum vote, construction’s expected output over the next five years now averages 2% per annum – down from 2.5% in the forecast from January this year. The remainder of 2016 and 2017 will also now see a period of limited growth and potentially a small contraction of -0.2%.
"Our new figures reflect the increased uncertainty in a Brexit-facing world. While construction’s slowdown cannot be solely attributed to the result of the vote, it has certainly intensified and hastened any decline in growth."
Stephen Radley, CITB
According to the CITB, while growth will average 2% a year nationally, the report states there will be substantial regional variations. Wales’ average growth rate will be 5.7%; southwest England will average 2.8%; northwest England 2.2%. However, in Scotland construction output will shrink by an average of 0.6% a year over the next five years; construction output in northeast England will shrink by 0.1% a year on average and by 0.2% in the east Midlands, the CITB says.
The biggest shift in the forecast is for the Greater London region where growth has fallen two percentage points from 3.5% in January’s forecast to 1.5%.
The data comes as the latest index from construction information specialist Glenigan echoed similar sentient. It showed the fallout of Brexit with project starts in the in the three months to September being 9% lower than a year ago and 15% down on the previous three month. Civil engineering projects are also experienced dampened starts with overall starts down 31% down on a year ago.
CITB director of policy Stephen Radley said: “Our new figures reflect the increased uncertainty in a Brexit-facing world. While construction’s slowdown cannot be solely attributed to the result of the vote, it has certainly intensified and hastened any decline in growth.
“Recently trading conditions have become more difficult, and margins are being further squeezed. But Brexit has introduced an unprecedented number of unknowns and construction is beginning to feel the repercussions.”
He added: “Delays and uncertainty over investment decisions and access to migrant labour will likely intensify as Brexit nears. While employers’ main focus in the short term will be to weather the storm, it’s also important that they equip their workforce with the right skills for the challenges ahead.”
