The CITB’s latest annual Construction Skills Network (CSN) report predicts that the construction industry will expand by an average of 2.5% over the next five years.
However, the predicted output growth rate for 2016-20 has fallen from last year, when the CITB predicted the industry would expand by 2.9% year-on-year between 2015 and 2019.
The latest predicted level of growth will create 232,000 additional jobs, with demand for new workers being front-loaded – the report says 80,000 new workers will be needed in 2016, with the remaining 152,000 required over 2017-2020.
The skills demand over the five-year period covered by this report is slightly higher than in last year’s five-year CSN prediction, with 232,000 additional roles needing to be filled compared to 224,000.
This suggests that the skills gap is in fact slightly widening, despite a more subdued growth rate.
Number of new recruits required annually 2016-2020
Source: Experian
According to the report, the slowdown in output expansion is “almost inevitable as the industry moves out of its initial recovery period and into one of sustained growth”.
But the CSN report says that 2.5% average output expansion compares favourably with the pre-recession growth in 1995 to 2007, when it averaged 2.1% a year.
As with last year’s report, Wales is the area set to see the greatest growth, with a predicted increase of 7.1%. This is followed by the south west (4.4%), London (3.5%), and the north west (2.6%).
The infrastructure sector is set to be the “star performer” over the next five years. With new nuclear power stations at Hinkley Point, Somerset, and Wylfa, Anglesey, alongside rail projects such as Crossrail and HS2, year-on-year growth in the sector is expected to reach 6.1%.
Public sector housing, however, is the only sector where growth is not predicted. According to the report, the prospects for the public housing sector are muted, with an annual average decline of 0.7% forecast for 2016 to 2020.
Annual average construction output growth 2016-2020
Annual average construction output by region 2016-2020
Source: Experian
To meet demand the report predicts that an increase of nearly 80,000 in the construction workforce is needed in 2016. Thereafter growth in employment tapers off, and over the whole of the five-year forecast period, construction employment is projected to expand at an annual average rate of 1.1%.
All but two of the 28 occupational categories are expected to experience employment growth over the five years to 2020. The two exceptions are plasterers and glaziers, for which employment is predicted to be flat.
The report predicts that just under 2,500 new construction project managers will be required over the next five years.
Steve Radley, policy director at the CITB, said: “All types of training, and especially apprenticeships, will be vital to delivering this pipeline of work. This positive forecast should inspire more people to start apprenticeships, and more firms to take them on.”
In response to the ongoing skills challenge, the CITB is in 2016 launching a series of new partnerships with local and regional training providers to make sure the right training takes place where it is needed most.
Construction output – UK (£m, 2012 prices)
Source: Experian
Steve Radley, director of policy at the CITB, said: “We can’t build the Britain we want without growing apprenticeships – and the careers they lead onto. That’s why it is vital that these new statistics, showing solid, sustained growth, inspire more people to join the construction industry.
“We also want to attract workers who have left the industry to return, and upskill those currently in the sector, so we can deliver major projects and new housing faster and better.”
Construction union UCATT reacted to the report by saying that the industry is in “crisis” as the figures show the huge gap between workers required and those in training.
Brian Rye, acting general secretary of UCATT, said: “The CITB’s forecast demonstrates that construction is facing a skills crisis. The industry must stop acting like an ostrich and accept it needs major reforms to produce the fully trained workforce it requires.”
